Report No. 1
An Analysis of Natural and Human-Made Disasters from 2015 to 2025
Research and data queries conducted by Dr. Carlos Comperatore (Human Endurance Systems, LLC).
Data Compilation and presentation by Gemini AI. September 2025
Executive Summary
The period from 2015 to 2025 marks a pivotal decade in which the global incidence and impact of natural disasters and social disorder have escalated and become deeply interconnected. Meteorological and socio-political data show a clear, statistically significant rise in the frequency and economic cost of climate-related disasters, a trend amplified by socio-economic factors. The U.S. has experienced a sharp increase in billion-dollar weather events, with the annual average for the most recent five years (2020-2024) more than doubling the long-termaverage. The analysis also shows a notable surge in global social unrest, with conflict levels nearly doubling over the past five years alone.
A central finding of this report is that these two phenomena—natural disasters and social instability—are not isolated. The evidence suggests a critical relationship in which climate-induced environmental stressors can act as a "risk multiplier." Long-term climate effects, such as drought, create foundational grievances over resources and livelihoods. In contrast, acute shocks, such as floods or hurricanes, can expose and exacerbate pre-existing governance failures and social inequalities. This dynamic can catalyze public frustration into political protest and civil unrest. The financial impact of this convergence is profound, with the cumulative costs of weather events in the U.S. exceeding $2.9 trillion since 1980. More frequent, though less catastrophic, events, such as severe convective storms, are driving a growing share of this burden. Effective risk management in this new environment requires a holistic and integrated approach that addresses both climate and social vulnerabilities.
Introduction: A Decade of Converging Crises
This report presents the global incidence and impact of floods, wildfires, hurricanes, severe storms, and social disorder from 2015 to 2025.
Part I: Natural Hazards: Frequency, Cost, and Geography
1. Rise in Weather Events, Lack of Strategic Planning, and Inconsistent Infrastructure Policy Create a Threat Complex
In the U.S., the annual average number of billion-dollar weather events has surged to 23.0 for the most recent five-year period (2020-2024), more than double the long-term average of 9 events per year from 1980 to 2024.1 While this statistic encompasses multiple types of disasters, it provides a reasonable measure of the rising risk. The year 2024 alone saw 27 confirmed billion-dollar weather/climate events in the U.S.
The total cumulative cost of all U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters since 1980 exceeds $2.915 trillion, a figure that has grown disproportionately in recent decades. The period from 2010 to 2019 saw 131 events costing $994.7 billion, far costlier than in previous decades, even after adjusting for inflation.(1)
The economic burden of floods and other climate disasters depends not only on event severity; human factors compound it. Heightened societal vulnerability drives rising costs. Inadequate building codes exacerbate the problem by failing to protect infrastructure during extreme events (1).
The 2010s were significantly costlier than previous decades. Increased urbanization and development in high-risk zones are major causes. Consequently, more valuable infrastructure and assets are in harm’s way today. A flood of similar meteorological magnitude today would inflict far greater economic losses than it did in the 1980s. Environmental and meteorological concerns contribute, but a lack of strategic planning and infrastructure policy creates a much more complex problem.
ReliefWeb and Munich Re global flood data illustrate the widespread nature of the threat complex. In 2024, a flood catastrophe in the United Arab Emirates resulted in $8.3 billion in damage (4). In 2025, ReliefWeb documented ongoing flood crises across the world, including events in Algeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela (5). The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) confirms that Europe experiences severe weather outbreaks with damaging winds and large hail that threaten densely populated areas (6).
The table below provides an overview of the U.S. billion-dollar disaster trends, illustrating the escalation in scale over the past decade.
Data compiled from National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and USAFacts (1).
2. Wildfires
Wildfires have become a global threat over the last 10 years. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)reported an increasing trend in the total acreage burned since the 1980s (8). In fact, all 10 of the years with the most extensive acreage burned in the U.S. have occurred since 2004, with peak years in 2015 and 2020.9 Recent events show the increasing scale of these fires; for example, in 2020, the August Complex fire burned over a million acres, considering its complex structure involving 37 separate fires. In 2024, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned over a million acres in the Texas Panhandle (10).
By June 1, 2025, more than 102 million hectares of land had burned worldwide. The African continent accounted for half of the total burned area (11). The World Resources Institute (WRI) reported that for the first time, wildfires surpassed agriculture and logging as the leading cause of deforestation in 2024, with Brazil accounting for 42% of the total tropical forest loss (11).
As warmer, drier conditions and extreme heatwaves fuel larger, more intense fires, these events release vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and destroy natural carbon sinks. This process accelerates climate change, creating even more favorable conditions for future wildfires. This is part of a self-reinforcing feedback loop that increases global systemic risk from global warming (12).
Financial costs are also immense. In 2025, the Los Angeles fires are estimated to cost up to $40 billion in insured losses, which comprises half of all global insured losses during the same period (14).
Data compiled from various sources, including NIFC, CTIF, Wikipedia, and World Weather Attribution (10)
3. Hurricanes and Severe Storms
The increased intensity of tropical cyclones, driven by a rising proportion of storms reaching Category 4 or 5, and the associated rainfall pose a complex threat to human life and infrastructure (18,20). Tropical cyclones are the most destructive natural disaster, causing cumulative damage of $1.5 trillion and the most deaths since 1980 (21).
Severe storms (SCS), including tornadoes, hail, and high winds, have been the most frequent type of billion-dollar event in the U.S. since 1980, with 203 such events recorded compared to 67 tropical cyclones (3). The year 2024 saw 17-billion-dollar severe storm events (1). Here is a critical inflection point: financial risk is no longer about preparing for rare, cataclysmic hurricane events, but about mitigating the consistent, escalating costs of frequent, regional severe storms. Consequently, your vulnerability is not just meteorological, but it is tied to where and how human populations are developing. Population density, building codes, economic stability, terrain, altitude, proximity to rivers, and coastlines combine to form a complex system. Another contributing factor raises the threat's complexity: the human dimension of disorder.
Part II: The Human Dimension of Disorder
4. Protests and Conflicts Surge
The Carnegie Endowment's Global Protest Tracker noted over 160 significant events registered globally in 2024.25Political conflict levels have almost doubled from 2024 to 2024 (9, 24).
Multiple causal factors drive widespread instability and unrest. The motivations for protest can be broadly categorized as:
ï Economic Factors: Austerity measures, inflation, rising prices, poor labor market conditions, and a general dissatisfaction with the standard of living fuel protests in many countries (25).
ï Political and Governance Factors: Political overreach, government corruption, and a lack of accountability consistently induce unrest among the general population (26). For instance, perceived election fraud in countries like Georgia and Mozambique, and anti-democratic actions by incumbent regimes in Serbia and South Korea, sparked protests (25).
ï Geopolitical and Social Factors: Hundreds of protests globally resulted from major conflicts, such as the Israel-Hamas war (25). Gender and LGBTQ rights, and divisive issues such as abortion rights, galvanize members of societies worldwide to protest openly (25).
The recent surge in social disorder in so many countries and in close temporal proximity points to a systemic global phenomenon. Activists expose long-term grievances underlying a “broken social contract” (26). These factors create a fertile environment for social instability that, combined with natural and human-made disasters, creates an increasingly complex threat to human survival.
Part III: The Complex Web of Risks
5. Disaster - Social Disorder Interactions
Somalia is an example of unintended consequences from interactions between climate change impacts and social unrest. Years of conflict have weakened the state's resilience. The "worst drought in four decades" further undermines its resilience, leading to mass displacement, hunger, and grievance. Climate change results in food insecurity and resource scarcity, increasing tensions between communities, and ultimately leading to violence (31). In Somalia’s case, climate change created environmental conditions leading to more
frequent and intense hazards, eventually increasing the volatility of the social environment.30 The United Nations highlights how a warming planet leads to more intense droughts, soil erosion, and reduced crop yields, which, in turn, intensify the competition over land and water among communities in close geographic proximity (31). Once established, this positive feedback intensifies destructive forces that are difficult to control because solutions require long-term commitments to mitigate climate change and restore trust in populations experiencing perpetual social and political grievances.
On the other hand, fast-acting disasters, such as natural disasters, can drive political and social change. For example, in 1985, the Mexico City earthquake exposed government incompetence, corruption, and neglect, sparking unprecedented public criticism (32). Greece and Bosnia also saw protests after poor government responses to a train crash in Greece and a devastating flood in Bosnia (28).
In Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria exposed a pre-existing, fragile electrical grid and left the island reeling from debt, with high poverty rates, particularly vulnerable to the storm's catastrophic effects (34). In addition, the lack of flood insurance among homeowners in Texas affected by Hurricane Harvey (75% of damaged homes were outside a 100-year flood plain and uninsured) also highlights how human planning failures can turn a natural event into a widespread economic and humanitarian crisis (36).
Unfortunately, vulnerable populations suffer the result of government incompetence in the face of human-made and natural disasters. This was obvious after Hurricane Katrina, when widespread looting occurred not as a random act of criminality, but as an expression of anger from a "disenfranchised" and impoverished population (33).
These examples suggest that social vulnerability, rooted in underlying factors such as poverty, poor housing, and limited access to resources, is a crucial determinant of a disaster's impact.
This matrix (above) illustrates the conceptual framework by mapping the relationship between natural events or stressors and the social factors that contribute to social disorder.
Conclusion
The evidence from the past decade shows a persistent upward trend in human-made and natural disasters, resulting in not only significant loss of life and infrastructure damage but also social disorder. Long-term climate stressors and acute natural disasters combine into a complex threat web, amplifying the effects of governance failures and socio-economic inequalities on vulnerable communities, and leading to a breakdown in social cohesion and a surge in unrest. The disproportionate impact on developing and fragile nations widens global inequities and fuels instability.
References
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Practice Resilience Through Vulnerability Analysis and
Emergency Preparations
Carlos Comperatore, Ph.D.
2025
Summary
This is a practical approach to conducting disaster vulnerability assessments of your region and anticipating natural and human-made disasters with sufficient time to protect life and financial assets.
Disaster Vulnerability
Disaster vulnerability refers to how exposed individuals, families, and communities are to hazards such as floods, earthquakes, wildfires, supply chain disruptions, severe storms, and public safety disruptions. It's not just about where you live, but also about personal circumstances, available resources, and preparedness levels. Understanding and addressing your personal vulnerability is the most powerful step you can take today to ensure your safety and that of your loved ones, no matter where you live.
By taking the practical steps discussed in this article, you move from a passive observer to an active participant in your own safety and resilience. Every small action contributes to a more prepared and secure future in the current era of persistent and unpredictable changes.
Evacuation
You must anticipate the need to evacuate before local authorities require you to do so. Do not wait for the final call to evacuate. Depending on where you live in the US, evacuation shelters may quickly become overcrowded, leaving you without safety and resources. It is better to have already decided when to leave and where to find shelter far away from the effects of the unfolding disaster (looting, violence, high winds, flooding, etc.) than to wait for local authorities to direct you to evacuate. Anticipating these decisions will also help you prepare adequately. Your transportation choice should be readily available, serviced, and fueled to facilitate reaching your destination without needing to stop for any reason
Understanding Your Vulnerability: A Self-Assessment
First, form a group to analyze potential environmental and societal hazards that have affected your region in the past. If you do not count on anyone else to contribute to this assessment, do it yourself. This analysis activity will be extremely useful to you and others in the event of an imminent regional threat. You can identify critical decisions and preparations by researching and studying previous disasters in your region.
1. Access public information from your town, city, or region, and gather information using the following queries with any search engine available to you:
a. Environmental factors
i. What natural hazards occur in your region?
For instance, do hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires, or blizzards occur frequently?
ii. Is your home in a high-risk zone for these natural hazards? (e.g., floodplains, near fault lines, in wildfire-prone areas, coastal erosion zones).
iii. What potential secondary impacts occur in your region after a natural disaster? (e.g., power outages, water contamination, road closures, supply chain disruptions, gasoline shortages, etc.).
iv. What potential social or systemic hazards are common to your area? For instance, disruptions to public safety, social unrest, frequent power outages, street flooding during heavy rains, frequent disruptions to food supplies, frequent disruptions to gasoline deliveries to gas stations, frequent loss of access to clean, drinkable water, etc.
v. Is your home in a high-risk zone for social or systemic hazards? For each potential risk, including secondary impacts, develop a list of factors that would occur before the threat materializes in your region. To identify these preliminary factors, ask what events, noticeable changes in the social or economic environment, occasional interruptions of public services, or weather information may precede the occurrence of the hazard in your region.
vi. Consolidate your understanding of potential hazards in your region and create a list of key information to monitor.
· Practice regularly following public sources of information to monitor environmental or social conditions that may increase the risk of hazards affecting your community, such as weather events, wildfires, earthquakes, floods, supply chain disruptions, civil unrest, or even unlawful behavior.
· For instance, if hurricanes are known to occur in your region and you live on the US East Coast, it would be prudent to regularly monitor weather reports tracking the formation of storms off the coast of Africa during hurricane season. In the US, this season runs from late June through December. Weather service reports will provide sufficient information on the storm’s intensity, track direction, and speed to anticipate when a hurricane may affect your region. These factors directly help determine the storm’s potential threat to your community and whether to shelter in place or evacuate.
b. Individual Factors:
i. Children: Do they know what to do? What supplies do they need?
ii. Older Adults: Do they have mobility limitations, chronic health conditions, or require specific medications? Are they socially isolated?
iii. Individuals with Disabilities or Special Needs: What specific accommodations or assistance might be required for evacuation or sheltering?
iv. Are there language barriers? If English is not a primary language for anyone in your household, ensure emergency information is accessible in their preferred language.
v. What are your social networks like? Do you know your neighbors? Do you have out-of-area contacts who can serve as communication points?
vi. Pets: Do you have a plan for their safety, including food, water, and transportation?
c. What is your housing situation?
i. Resilience: Is your home structurally resilient to local hazards? (e.g., bolted to the foundation, protected against high winds).
ii. Limitations: Do you live in an apartment building, a single-family home, or a mobile home? Each has different considerations. For instance, an apartment building offers strong protection against some environmental hazards, but power failures can create major challenges for young and elderly family members. Always consider the actual danger and potential secondary consequences.
d. Financial Resources
i. Emergency Funds: Do you have an emergency fund for unexpected expenses or temporary relocation?
ii. Insurance: Is your home adequately insured against relevant hazards (e.g., flood insurance, earthquake insurance)? Do you have contents insurance?
Actionable Steps You Can Take Today
1. Even small actions today can significantly reduce your vulnerability and increase your safety in the event of a disaster.
2. Start gathering essential supplies for both evacuating quickly (a "Go-Bag" or "Bug-Out Bag") and sheltering at home for several days (a "Shelter-in-Place" kit):
a. Emergency Kit:
i. Water: One gallon per person per day for at least three days (for drinking and sanitation).
ii. Food: At least a three-day supply of non-perishable food.
iii. First Aid Kit: Including prescription medications, pain relievers, and any personal medical items.
iv. Flashlight and extra batteries.
v. A battery-powered or hand-crank radio and a NOAA weather radio with tone alert.
vi. Whistle: To signal for help.
vii. Dust mask: To help filter contaminated air.Plastic Sheeting and duct tape: To shelter in place.
viii. Plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place.
ix. Moist towelettes, garbage bags, and plastic ties: For personal sanitation.
x. A cell phone with chargers and a backup battery.
xi. Local paper maps.
xii. Cash: ATMs may not work
xiii. A manual can opener and Wrench, or pliers: To turn off utilities.
xiv. Important documents: Copies of insurance policies, identification, and bank records in a waterproof, portable container.
xv. Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person.
xvi. Change of clothing for each person.
xvii. Fire extinguisher.
3. Make a Family Emergency Plan
a. Encourage family members and loved ones to maintain a basic GO-Bag available in their vehicles or homes.
b. Discuss what you will do in an emergency before it happens.
c. Prepare your family and loved ones psychologically and make sure they have a clear plan to follow in case they are separated due to road closures and phones do not function due to cell tower damage.
4. Establish
a. A Communication Plan
i. Out-of-State Contact: Choose one person outside your immediate area who everyone in your family can contact to report their status. This is often easier than trying to reach local numbers during a widespread emergency.
ii. Reach Everyone: Provide a method to reach everyone in your circle of influence in case of an emergency.
iii. Collaborative Group: Identify trusted collaborative friends who may provide temporary shelter or resources in case of separation and breakdown of communication technologies.
b. Meeting Points: Designate two meeting places: one just outside your home (for sudden emergencies, such as a fire) and one outside your neighborhood (in case you can't return home or need to evacuate).
c. Evacuation Routes: Familiarize yourself with multiple routes out of your neighborhood and community. Practice them.
d. Shelter-in-Place Instructions: Learn how to seal off a room if advised to shelter in place due to hazardous materials.
e. Specific Needs: Account for the needs of children, older adults, individuals with disabilities, and pets.
5. Regularly Review and Practice your Plan
· Stay Informed and Connected
· Knowledge and community connections are powerful vulnerability reducers:
o Sign Up for Local Alerts: Register for your community's emergency alert system (e.g., Reverse 911, Nixle alerts). Download relevant weather apps.
o Know Local Emergency Services: Be aware of the contact information for your local police, fire department, and emergency management agency.
o Connect with Neighbors: Get to know those living around you. They can be a critical resource during an emergency, especially if you need help or need to help others. Consider forming a neighborhood watch or community emergency response team (CERT).
6. Monitor Reliable News Sources
During a disaster, rely on official government channels and trusted news organizations for accurate and reliable information.
7. Secure Your Home
Mitigation measures around your home can prevent or reduce damage.
i. Anchor Heavy Furniture: Secure bookshelves, televisions, and other tall, heavy items to the walls to prevent them from toppling during an earthquake.
ii. Secure Water Heaters: Strap your water heater to the wall studs.
iii. Install Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors. Test them monthly and change the batteries annually.
iv. Address Exterior Risks: If in a wildfire area, clear brush and maintain defensible space. If you live in a hurricane-prone area, secure loose objects and consider installing storm shutters. If in a flood area, elevate utilities and consider flood vents.
v. Review Your Insurance: Understand what your current policies cover (homeowner's, renter's) and determine if you need additional coverage, such as flood or earthquake insurance.
5. Financial Preparedness
Having a financial safety net can significantly reduce post-disaster stress and speed recovery.
a. Emergency Savings: Aim to have at least 3-6 months of living expenses saved in an easily accessible account.
b. Review Insurance Policies: Understand your deductibles, coverage limits, and what specific perils are covered or excluded.
c. Keep Copies of Important Documents: Store copies of birth certificates, passports, insurance policies, property deeds, bank account information, and wills in a waterproof, fireproof safe at home, and ideally, also keep digital copies in a secure cloud storage.
NOTICE: Content generated by Google's Gemini AI model, accessed on June 26, 2025, based on Disaster Vulnerability research by Dr. Carlos Comperatore, Human Endurance Systems, LLC -humanendurancesystemsllc.com.
REFERENCES
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· How communities assess their disaster safety vulnerability:
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· Disaster safety vulnerability assessment tools:
·
11. Flypix.ai: "Top Disaster Assessment Tools for Effective Response" (https://flypix.ai/blog/disaster-assessment-tools/)
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· Strategies to reduce disaster safety vulnerability:
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[cc1]this chapter needs a new outline to integrate the report's material into the book's outline
Public Safety Disruption: A Human-made Disaster
Carlos Comperatore, Ph.D.
August 2026
Depending on your place of residence, municipal agencies may not consistently monitor or report on local conditions that may signal that a public safety disruption event is likely to occur, such as looting, riots, or violent public demonstrations. Instead, you may become aware of the occurrence of these hazard events as they happen or after the fact. Anticipating an event that will disrupt public safety requires studying and monitoring local conditions that affect your community. For example, monitoring factors that may precipitate social disorder will help anticipate hazardous conditions before an emergency arises at your doorstep. The following list of factors is not exhaustive, but it helps us think of possible toxic combinations: a) overpopulation, b) unemployment rate, c) cost of food, d) cost of healthcare, e) political polarization, f) racial and economic housing discrimination, g) increased frequency of unlawful acts (e.g., store robberies, petty theft, sexual assault, home invasions, politically inspired violent attacks, random acts of violence to private citizens), and g) racial discrimination in hiring practices.
If you conclude that Public Safety Disruption is a potential hazard, you will need to identify the symptoms that precede and manifest the disruption of public safety (see Figure below).
Observable factors and symptoms in your community increase the likelihood of public safety disruption.
As the incidence of natural and human-made disasters increases year after year, the drain on your community‘s
law enforcement and rescue resources will also increase, gradually exhausting the means necessary to control
factors and symptoms that lead to disruptions in public safety.
Moreover, it is essential to remain vigilant about the extent to which these factors impact your community. For each factor, estimate the observable state. Is it low, moderate, or high?
Consider that each factor falling in the high rating category (e.g., high cost of living, high unemployment, overpopulation, etc.) increases your community’s risk of experiencing public safety disruption (e.g., high crimerate, city government corruption, looting, etc.). The greater the number of contributing factors in the high rating range, the more you should consider that living conditions in your community significantly threaten your safety and the safety of your loved ones.
In the US, visit FEMA’s interactive vulnerability map to assess social vulnerability in your region or town(https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/map). Outside the US, explore the Global Data Lab’s interactive tools (https://globaldatalab.org/).
If you live in a densely populated area, monitor the frequency of natural and human-made disasters worldwide. As the number of worldwide disaster events rises, communities already struggling with overpopulation and economic stress may begin to lose social stability. Do not wait until the symptoms discussed here become part of your daily experience before deciding to relocate to a more stable community. These symptoms put you and your loved ones at risk of physical injuries, unrelenting stress, and mental health decline.